Rahm released his second ad yesterday, entitled "Tenacity." It should be a leading candidate for 2010's "overstated accomplishment in a campaign TV or Web ad" award.

In the spot, the owner and employees of the company praise Rahm's actions to keep the company in Chicago. It's almost a carbon-copy of an Alexi Giannoulias ad recounting his highly-public efforts to save Hartmarx and approximately 1,000 jobs. The Giannoulias campaign used the story early in the race to define Alexi as a caring, pro-jobs State Treasurer; it clearly worked well enough to be re-run in late October.

If only the magnitude of Rahm's story matched up.

With Chicago Paper Tube and Can, Rahm apparently only helped keep about 30 jobs in Chicago. Further, it's unclear exactly what he did and no contemporaneous news reports exist; the company president states in the ad that Rahm "made the city and the state and developers see the logic of keeping employees in Chicago."  Does "logic" mean the city or state was compelled to provide financial incentives to keep these 30 jobs here? If so, that's hardly a sustainable model for every job in the city.
 

Take a look for yourself at the two ads and note their similarities:

Rahm's campaign manager Scott Fairchild (who, interestingly, has a LinkedIn profile) emailed supporters tonight regarding the lingering residency issue.

This makes one wonder what they are seeing in polling and hearing in voter conversations about this issue. While a majority may not be concerned about the issue per se, there may be a larger group of voters beginning to internalize a perception that Rahm is not a true Chicagoan. Of course, Rahm spent his pre-high school years in Chicago, represented Chicago's IL-5 district for 6 years, and votes in Chicago.

The email text below:

Dear Friend,

You've probably seen the reports this week that say that a lawyer is planning to file a challenge claiming that Rahm is not a Chicago resident in an attempt to knock him off the ballot. That's after more than 90,000 of you signed petitions saying that he should be a candidate for Mayor. 
 
You know the facts: Rahm was born in Chicago's Albany Park, he raised his family here, he owns a home here, his car is registered here and he votes here. There's no question that he's a Chicago resident. 
 
Make no mistake: political games are being played to limit your choices for Mayor.
 
And what for? To continue the same old backroom politics that have gone on in Chicago for too long.
 
The editorial boards of the Chicago Sun-Times and the Chicago Tribune, as well as three former Presidents of the Chicago Bar Association, have weighed in to say that Rahm is a resident and should be allowed to run.
 
The Chicago Tribune wrote, "We've heard the arguments and feel confident Emanuel is firmly and legally rooted to Chicago."
 
And the Sun-Times stated, "But the bottom line is clear: Emanuel is a real Chicagoan. It would be a travesty if the courts said anything but."
 
Please share with your friends and family members so that they have the facts to respond to the distortions that will continue to air against Rahm.
 
I'm counting on you to make sure the facts reach farther than the fiction - and ensure that Chicago's next mayor is chosen by the voters alone.
 
Can you forward this email to five family members and friends?

Thank you,
 
Scott Fairchild, Campaign Manager

Chicago for Rahm

Below is the preliminary list of mayoral candidates who have filed petitions with the Chicago elections board:

The major candidates:
Gery Chico
Danny Davis
Miguel Del Valle
Rahm Emanuel
James Meeks
Carol Moseley Braun

The novelty candidates:
Rob Halpin (who rents Rahm's Ravenswood home)
Roland Burris (the former senator, as part of a draft Burris movement...)

The longshots:
Wilfredo De Jesus
Tyrone Carter
Ryan Graves
Tommy Hanson
John Hu
M. Tricia Lee
Fenton Patterson
Howard Ray
Jay Stone
Patricia Van Pelt-Watkins
Bill "Dock" Walls
Frederick White

The potential major candidates who passed:
Tom Dart
Alexi Giannoulias
Luis Gutierrez
Lisa Madigan
Paul Vallas (who endorsed Chico today)

Candidates have until Dec. 23rd to withdraw their candidacies. Here's hoping Roland Burris heeds the will of the people and stays in the race.

Following the 2010 midterms, Facebook published an article on the predictive ability of a candidate's number of Facebook "fans".  The results of the study were impressive: in 74% of contested House races and 80% of Senate races, the candidate with most fans went on to win the race.

Facebook users are typically very selective of who and what they choose to "like". To be a fan is to make a public endorsement to all of your friends for this candidate. Hundreds of studies have shown that recommendations from friends are extroardinarily powerful in growing (or destroying) one's business.

It's early, but here are the results through Nov. 21:
Rahm Emanuel = 33,163 fans
James Meeks = 3,137
Gery Chico = 1,507 (including a spanish-language page)
Miguel Del Valle = 1,507
Danny Davis = 527
Carol Moseley Braun = 469

This is yet another testament to Rahm's organizational strength right now, although some unknown percentage of his fans are certainly from outside Chicago. Either way, it's a big lead helped by having much of the former Obama for America online team.

However, the numbers for James Meeks are very interesting. As I mentioned below, he is pursuing an unorthodox coalition of African Americans, conservatives, and business leaders.  He also has a built-in following from his Salem Baptist Church that may be overstating his fan base. However, Facebook would argue that this indicates a passionate base of support from which to grow his campaign. Time will tell.

Conversely, Carol Moseley Braun needs to get a Facebook page up and running. The obvious conclusion is that she has not run a race in the social media era and is overlooking these mediums. Facebook would suggest that this will cost her in building a grassroots base, and I am inclined to agree.

A busy weekend in the mayoral race as candidates start to create news stories to shape their candidacies with voters.

Gery Chico responds to criticism from Mayor Daley regarding Chico's comments that  the public school system has "lost our momentum once again."

Carol Moseley Braun announces her candicacy, with Bobby Rush on stage (as opposed to say, House colleague Danny Davis), and lays out her case against Rahm and for herself.

The Chicago Sun-Times continues their search for an angle on the Rahm eligibility issue.

Danny Davis, with House in session, weighs in on extension of unemployment benefits, hitting Republicans for voting against extension.

James Meeks announces candidacy and makes overt push for Chicago's Republicans and the business commmunity. Article notes that 20% of Chicago voters went for Kirk over Alexi and notes a range of issues where Meeks is closer to a Republican viewpoint (school vouchers!).

Miguel Del Valle cancels contract with Chicago city car stickers.

And, Kelsey Grammer, a Republican in his personal life, has signed on to play a Chicago mayor in an upcoming Starz series purchased from... Ari Emanuel's firm.

The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet published the full memo of a poll commissioned by the Teamsters Union conducted by well-respected firm Anzalone Liszt Research.  Taking the poll at face value, there are three alarming results from the poll for anyone not part of Rahm's team.

1) Rahm is way ahead of the field. He is more than 2:1 ahead of any other competitor: Rahm 36%, Davis 14%, Mosley-Braun 13%, Chico 10%

2) Davis and Mosley-Braun each have 80-90% name ID, as does Rahm. It is not a matter of introducing these candidates to the voters. Today, voters overwhelmingly prefer Rahm among other candidates they know.

3) There is no negative frame on Rahm with any legs just yet.  Voters clearly don't care about residency issues. At 37% agree / 50% disagree, voters may at some point believe that he has a temperment issue if this issue is pursued by an opponent. However, that message will require a lot of money and free press attention; neither likely today given the weakness in these campaigns.

An interesting article in Crain's Chicago Business highlights that Rahm will be holding a fundraiser with many of the top CEO's, board chairmen, and executives in the Chicago area.   I have professional experience with a few of these executives, and I think it's worth emphasizing that these executives may well be (rightly) acting in their self-interest and not, for example, because they want to see better public school systems.

Fundamentally, executives engage because there is something in it for them. They may be asking, which of these candidates would have been most likely to provide $25M in incentives to move UAL Corp to the Willis Tower as did Mayor Daley in 2009?  Which of these candidates would have the standing to stare down the unions, city hall, and the federal gov't to secure the most money for the least strings?  His background in DC and in investment banking makes Rahm the obvious choice right now.

What's not explicit here, but is different from national races, is that donations from individuals, PACs, and businesses are UNLIMITED until the end of 2010. In 2011, new limits take effect. So, this means three things:

1) Rahm is smart to have these fundraisers now.
2) Companies and individuals could theoretically swamp the election with money to support their preferred candidate.
3) Given that these companies do not compete against each other, it is probably in their best interest to all get behind the same candidate.

With no self-funder in the race, and short of national-type money (e.g., big labor unions or Karl Rove's American Crossroads), the executives have a lot of power in the race for the next two months.

Makes you wonder if a Republican candidate wouldn't be the best anti-Rahm...

As I've written about previously, one of Rahm's signature political achievements is his work to recruit Democrats and flip 30 Republican House seats in 2006. After last night's very difficult night for the Democrats, how did the "Rahm Democrats" do?

Well, 4 of them ran for Senate last night but only 1 won.

Winner: Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
Losers: Paul Hodes (NH), Brad Ellsworth (IN), Joe Sestak (PA)


In the House, 23 ran (3 were defeated in '08) and up to 12 won, which is not bad considering the overall performance last night in swing-ish districts.

Winners: Ed Permutter (CO-7), Joe Courtney (CT-2), Chris Murphy (CT-5), Joe Donnelly (IN-2), Bruce Braley (IA-1), Dave Loebsack (IA-2), John Yarmuth (KY-3), Tim Walz (MN-1), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Jason Altmire (PA-4)
Leading: Gabriell Giffords (AZ-08), Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
Losers: Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Ron Klein (FL-22), Baron Hill (IN-9), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1), John Hall (NY-19), Mike Arcuri (PA-4), Zack Space (OH-18), Patrick Murphy (PA-8), Chris Carney (PA-10), Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23), Steve Kagen (WI-8)