Lynn Sweet broke the news, since confirmed by the campaign itself, that Tom Dart will not be running for mayor.  This is really significant, because Tom Dart had some signs of being able to achieve the anti-Rahm objective of having a strong team as well-known strategist Joe Trippi had signed on as a consultant as well as a familiarity with Chicago voters.

Rahm's early signaling of strength and organization has seemingly intimidated many potential anti-Rahms out of the race: Luis Gutierrez, Jesse Jackson Jr., and now Tom Dart. Right now, there is no current candidate with the structural fortitude to match Rahm.

There is growing sentiment that the Chicago mayoral race will eventually come down to Rahm Emanuel vs. one other candidate, very similar to the 2008 presidential primary where candidates auditioned to be the alternative to Hillary Clinton.  There are four driving factors that would determine the alternative:

1) Natural voter coalition: This is the area of greatest opportunity against Rahm. A recent article estimated that African Americans would comprise about 40% of the vote and that Latinos about 15%. Leaders of these groups, Dan Davis and Luis Gutierrez, the later no fan of Rahm's, are looking closely at their options to unite to oppose Rahm most effectively.

Other prominent coalitions in Chicago are the various union groups, with whom Rahm has done himeself no favors with his charter school cheerleading.

2) Money:  Politico has speculated that a successful campaign would cost up to $10M, and it's been well-reported that Rahm Emanuel starts with $1.1M from his congressional campaigns and will collecting up to $4M at a Hollywood fundraiser in November (per Nikki Finke). Expect Rahm to well exceed the $10M number, and while candidates don't necessarily have to keep pace, they do need to acheive a viable number that approaches the $10M cost throughout the campaign.

Quite honestly, I'm not sure anyone except Lisa Madigan (if she enters the race) could be expected to stay close in fundraising. Of course, coalitions and unions can help bridge the gap.

3) Campaign sophistication: Rahm Emanuel has hired an array of top national-level Democratic resources, from Ben LaBolt to David Axelrod's media firm.  These are top people, although perhaps a little light in Chicago experience.

Among others, only Moseley Braun has assembled a set of top talent.

4) The wedge issue of the campaign: This is the big unknown, at least to me, so campaigns probably have some ability to create this issue. Will it be insider vs. outsider? Will it be education (pitting unions vs. charter schools)? Will it be budget-related?

Have a great weekend! Go Bears!

With the news yesterday that Luis Gutierrez would not run to focus on immigration reform (because there's a better chance of this happening after the mid-terms?), Gutierrez moves to the role of kingmaker of sorts. So, the questions are:

1) What does the Gutierrez endorsement mean?
2) What does Gutierrez want?
3) Could Rahm get it?

The answer to #1 is a certifiable seal of approval among the Latino community. Estimates are that Latinos make up about 15% of registered voters in the city of Chicago; as locals well know, Chicago is a community of largely separate local neighborhoods, and the Latino voting block is one of the largest.  Gutierrez represents many of them in Congress, so they know him and presumably trust him.

The answer to #3 is, based on past statements, no. Even before Daley announced he was not running for re-election, Gutierrez felt it important to go on the record in saying he would not endorse Rahm for mayor, even taking a bt of a jab at him:

"He’s not to get my endorsement anytime soon. He should stay in the White House, but then he can go make millions in investment banking," Gutierrez said, referencing the Wall Street job Emanuel held between his post in the Clinton White House and his run for Congress in 2002."

So, this gives other candidates a prime opportunity to cast themselves as the primary anti-Rahm.

Now, what does Gutierrez want? I can't tell. Maybe it's just to oppose Rahm Emanuel. We will see...

For those looking for more depth on Rahm Emanuel's style, I highly recommend interested readers to read a great profile from the Chicago Tribune written in December 2006 entitled "The House Rahm Built." It's notable in detailing a few long-held caricatures, some good and some bad:

1) Rahm the volative expletive machine: Rahm overheard saying to James Carville late in the campaign "James. No James. YOU LISTEN. Can you listen for one [expletive] minute?"

2) Rahm the intimidator: Former Republican congressman Christopher Shays, upon seeing Rahm in the gym and hearing Rahm will spend $3M to defeat him, says "I'll tell you what. Just give me the $3M, and I'll retire voluntarily." Rahm later admits "I wake up some mornings hating me too."

3) Rahm the workhorse: Rahm apparently lost 14 pounds and his hair turned white from exhaustion during the campaign, and sadly lost a little bit of touch with his family.

4) Rahm, not the idealogue: Tells the story of his recruitment of Heath Shuler to run for Congress, he of joining Republicans in voting against both the stimulus and the health care bills. It also talks of him making enemies with the Congressional Black Caucus and the Blue Dogs over fundraising.

5) Rahm the winner: Through it all, Rahm's approach helped the Democrates triumphantly take back control of the House by fielding more competitive candidates and raising more money than thought possible. 

The benefit for watchers of this race is that it will continue to be well-covered nationally as well as locally. A few articles I found interesting:

Politico does an in-depth "where are they now" of Rahm's well-recruited 2006 class of House candidates, who may all be out of the House by 2010.

Ben Smith finds excerpts of a 1995 book by press scrap-causer William J. Kelly and the use of the term 'white negro' (!).

Luis Gutierrez, who would have made the race very interesting given his close ties to the Hispanic community, announces he will not run. You should expect his endorsement to be quite valuable.

Lisa Madigan also says she's out. My inside sources confirm that she's previously gone Shermanesque on the race.

And, the latest follower bases on Twitter:
MayorEmanuel = 3,365
RahmEmanuelFacts = 1,192
RahmEmanuel (official) = 732

You made it! Welcome to rahmforchicago.com. Before we go any further, let's be clear that this site is not affiliated with any Chicago mayoral campaign or political organization, national or local.

So, what are my plans for the site? I don't know. I purchased the domain name soon after Mayor Daley's announcement that he would not seek re-election. It was no inside secret that Rahm Emanuel was interested. It was also no inside secret that the campaign website convention of "nameforlocation.com" has taken hold, especially within Illinois Democratic campaign circles. It was available, so I bought it. 

In fact, coverage has already shown that many reporters expected rahmforchicago.com to be the official website. On Saturday, Lynn Sweet tweeted "Rahmforchicago.com supposed to be live..." Maggie Haberman of Politico quoted several strategists as asking "shouldn't it be the other way around?" 

Now, I love politics - both the strategy (campaign and policy-making) and the resulting policies - but I'm not "in politics". While I think I have some insights to share, I'm neither Nate Silver nor Lynn Sweet. That said, domain names (and websites by extension) matter in reaching voters, prospective supporters and donors, and spreading one's message to the press for broader consumption. That's why I think the domain name should sit with someone who intends to use it for those purposes. 

I think the race to replace Mayor Daley as the mayor of Chicago, the greatest city in the world, will be a very compelling story with many great characters.  With Rahm Emanuel and the prospect of prominent strategists (see Trippi, Joe), the race promises to have strong national storylines and coverage as well. 

Do you have ideas for the site or are you interested in using the domain name? Want to nominate me for an ugliest temporary site design award? I'm also on a bit of a listening tour. Email me at rahmforchicago@gmail.com  

While we figure out what to do with the site, I'll pass on these sites for local Chicago news...

Chicago Sun-Times

Chicago Tribune 

...and these sites for great Rahm Emanuel intrigue from the national press:

Politico

Talking Points Memo

Huffington Post  

Last, I'll pass on a fun (if you're a political junkie, that is) YouTube link from 2006 of Rahm Emanuel visiting then-candidate Eric Massa (yes, that Eric Massa) on the campaign trail and giving him a little advice around the 3:40 mark. Good insight into how Rahm works and commands attention.